A Moment of Truth for the Completion Agenda

Nearly two decades ago, higher education leaders and policymakers across the nation set an ambitious goal: By 2025, 60 percent of Americans would hold a postsecondary degree or credential.

Now, as 2025 has arrived, it’s clear we haven’t yet hit the mark.

That’s not to say immense progress hasn’t been made. Since 2009, the percentage of Americans ages 25 to 64 attaining a college degree or postsecondary credential has increased by a remarkable 17 points, reaching nearly 55 percent. Some states have even surpassed the 60 percent threshold and are setting their sights on even bolder goals.

While this growth is a testament to the collective efforts of policymakers, institutions and organizations like the Lumina Foundation to drive systemic changes in college access and completion, it’s important to recognize that many more states continue to fall short of the 60 percent benchmark. But this milestone was always meant to be a waypoint, not a destination, and it’s not time to throw up our hands or limp across the finish line. It’s time to double down on proven strategies that are dismantling the barriers that hold too many students back.

To be sure, past progress does not guarantee future success. In many ways, closing completion gaps now feels more challenging than ever. A movement that began with the wind at our backs—higher education leaders and policymakers united around a shared commitment to improving degree attainment—has since run into mounting headwinds. Many states remain overly focused on enrollment rather than completion, prioritizing getting students through the door instead of to the graduation stage. The field also continues to observe a fundamental misalignment between higher education and workforce needs that leaves too many graduates with degrees or credentials that fail to lead to meaningful employment. And, as we navigate a quickly shifting political ecosystem where we’ve seen student loan repayment programs and student success initiatives aimed at serving students who are most vulnerable to disruptions in their educations come under fire, the hurdles that the field faces are likely to grow taller.

Partisan attacks on higher education’s value will undoubtedly complicate these efforts. While there is bipartisan support for preparing the workforce of tomorrow, this vision often clashes with rhetoric that undermines trust in the very institutions best positioned to deliver it. This tension makes it even more difficult to secure the funding and public backing needed to sustain and accelerate progress.

Fortunately, the past two decades of work have yielded strategies that provide a clear road map for reaching the 60 percent goal—and beyond.

First, states should ensure investments in higher education better align with attainment goals by continuing to embrace and refine performance-based funding models. Historically, most states have funded public colleges and universities based on enrollment—a holdover of a time when access was the primary focus. Recent shifts to performance-based models have already resulted in modest gains in graduation rates.

However, current performance-based funding models only account, on average, for a small fraction—less than 8 percent—of public operating funds. Reaching the 60 percent goal will require rethinking and doubling down on this approach, transforming funding from a performance-based model into a completion-based model that prioritizes degree attainment.

Second, institutions should further invest in student success strategies. Closing attainment gaps for students of color, students from low-income backgrounds and adult learners is essential to boosting completion rates. This requires expanding financial aid, strengthening academic support services and creating flexible pathways for busy working adults. It also includes strategies like encouraging full-time students to take 15 credit hours per semester, offering robust corequisite support to help students pass gateway English and math courses, and ensuring that every student has a clear, straightforward academic plan tied directly to their career goals.

Finally, higher education leaders and policymakers alike will need to remain vigilant against the roadblocks threatening progress. Advocates and leaders should push back against the narrative that a college degree is no longer worth the investment. However, this defense must address legitimate concerns about affordability and relevance. Higher education’s strongest case lies in proving its value through an unwavering commitment to student completion and career success. Federal and state policymakers can work together to rebuild trust in higher education by more clearly acknowledging and articulating higher education’s value—not only in terms of economic outcomes but also in fostering equity, civic engagement and innovation. While higher education should never be above criticism and is undoubtedly in need of reform, the path forward should be one of collaboration, not division.

While 2025 may not be the year we achieve it, ensuring that 60 percent of adults in the U.S. earn degrees or credentials of value is still within our reach. But doing so will require more than sustaining the current momentum. Meeting and exceeding this goal demands bold action, innovative thinking and an unwavering commitment to improving completion. It’s the only way to ensure that higher education delivers on its true promise as an engine of opportunity for generations to come.